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**An improved design of a computerized piece of continuous quality measuring equipment used to control the**

**thickness of rolled sheet products is being developed. It is estimated to sell for $125,000 more than the**

**current design. Based on present test data, however, the typical user has the following probabilities of achieving**

**different performance results and cost savings (relative to the current unit) in the first year of operation**

**(assume these annual cost savings would escalate 5% per year thereafter; a five-year analysis period is used; the**

**MARR=18%, and the net market value after five years is 0):**

**(a) Based on the E(PW), is the new design preferable to the current unit?**

**(b) Based on a decision tree analysis, what is the EVPI? What does the EVPI tell you?**

Cost Savings in Year One (S) 60,000 40,000 18,000 Performance Results Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Probability 0.30 0.55 0.15

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